So, here we are.
One round to play in the Bellarine.
Five home-and-away matches remain before the action heads to Portarlington Recreation Reserve for the opening week of the finals.
After a disappointing elimination final exit in 2024, Geelong Amateur (60 points) has the minor premiership in its keeping and will come out of a second semi-final and have two cracks at playing in its first grand final since 2017.
Torquay (48 points, 155.91%), unless it’s on the end of some extraordinary hiding by wooden spoon-bound Ocean Grove, will finish second and continue its quest for a first hat-trick of flags from a qualifying final.
Who the Tigers play on the opening day of the finals remains undecided.
Third-placed Drysdale (44 points, 132.98%) is in the box seat following its 131-point hiding of Portarlington, which resulted in the Hawks replacing Queenscliff (44 points, 123.925%), who defeated the Tigers, in third.
If Drysdale can take care of sixth-placed Barwon Heads (36 points, 111.58%), and Queenscliff doesn’t beat fifth-placed Anglesea (40 points, 102.43%) by a significant amount, Ben Carmichael’s men will face the Tigers.
That would mean the Coutas would face the Roos the following Sunday in the elimination final.
However, a Drysdale loss and a Queenscliff win over Anglesea would result in four changes in ladder position.
The Hawks would drop to fourth and play the Seagulls, who sit a game behind the Roos, but have a superior percentage, in an elimination final.
The Coutas would take third and chase a third win of the year over Torquay in the qualifying final, while Anglesea will be watching on, only a year after making its first grand final appearance in 25 years.
If both the Roos and Seagulls win, nothing changes, unless Barwon Heads puts some hurt on Drysdale that would see its percentage drop under Queenscliff’s.
Make sense?
Refer to our breakdown below for further clarity.
X: @krockfootball
THE SCENARIOS
- Barwon Heads (6th) vs. Drysdale (3rd) @ APCO Cafe 24-7 Oval, 2:10pm
- Anglesea (5th) vs. Queenscliff (4th) @ Ellimatta Reserve, 2:10pm
(We haven’t factored in a draw because we’ve gone 85 games without one this year, and we aren’t planning for it to happen this week.)
If Drysdale and Queenscliff win… the Hawks will remain third and the Coutas fourth. Drydale will play Torquay in the qualifying final. Anglesea will hold fifth spot and play Queenscliff in the elimination final, with Barwon Heads on the outside looking in.
If Drysdale wins and Queenscliff loses… see above.
If Drysdale loses and Queenscliff loses… also see above
If Drysdale loses and Queenscliff wins… the Hawks will face Barwon Heads again in the elimination final, the Coutas will meet Torquay in the qualifying final, and Anglesea will miss out.
