Four doesn’t go into two

One round remaining. Two spots up for grabs. Four teams in contention.

It’s going to be one hell of a Bellarine final round, with four matches directly impacting the make-up of the top five.

What we do know is that Queenscliff, which holds a buffer of one win and 50.48 per cent over second-placed Geelong Amateur, ahead of its meeting with Portarlington, will claim the minor premiership for the first time since 2013.

In not even your wildest dreams, there is a scenario where Ammos lose to Surf Coast, with all eyes on playing co-coach Sam Lloyd’s quest to kick 100 goals at community level for the second time in his career.

The former Richmond and Western Bulldogs forward sits on 87 goals as he looks to replicate a feat he previously achieved with home club Deniliquin as a 20-year-old in 2010.

Win or lose against Newcomb, Torquay is finishing third, giving Dom Gleeson nine finals appearances from ten completed seasons in charge, and preparing for Ammos in a qualifying final.

So that leaves four teams fighting for two spots.

NEWCOMB (4^th, 9-8, 119.19%)

Newcomb took a giant stride towards its first finals berth in 19 years after handing Barwon Heads a three-figure hiding. Not without a chance against a the Torquay team locked into a qualifying final, with the prospect that the Tigers might rest some veteran bodies. However, don’t expect the Power to lose by so much that their percentage takes a big enough hiding.

Predicted finish: 5^th, 9-9

BARWON HEADS (5^th, 9-8, 98.17%)

It’s been far from an ideal fortnight for Barwon Heads, which has been without big man Luke Davis and experienced defender Kyle Polley, among others. Big losses to Geelong Amateur and Newcomb have left them vulnerable to finishing sixth for a second consecutive season if they were to lose to the struggling Ocean Grove. However, the Grubbers are going that badly; the Seagulls should limp into an elimination final.

Predicted finish: 4^th, 10-8

ANGLESEA (6^th,8-9, 112.15%)

Anglesea could be watching on during the finals unless one of two situations play out. A win over Modewarre is paramount. The Roos will be hoping it’s a big victory that will boost their percentage enough to overtake Newcomb, if the Power loses to Torquay by a significant margin. Victory over the Warriors and a shock Barwon Heads loss to Ocean Grove would also see the Roos sneak into fifth spot.

Predicted finish: 6^th, 9-9

DRYSDALE (7^th, 8-10, 91.23%)

Despite beating Anglesea in a thriller, a bye in the final round means Drysdale’s 2026 campaign is over.

Predicted finish: 7^th, 8-10

PORTARLINGTON (8^th, 8-9, 87.49%)

31 years of no luck at Queens Park continued for Portarlington, with the weekend loss to Geelong Amateur all but ending the Demons’ hopes of a first finals berth since 1994. Losses for Barwon Heads (a big one) and Anglesea, and a big win over minor premier Queenscliff would give Port a sniff. To paraphrase Frank Costanza in Seinfeld: “million-to-one shot”.

Predicted finish: 8^th, 8-10

FINALS WEEK ONE PREDICTION

Qualifying Final: Saturday, August 28 – Geelong Amateur vs. Torquay @ Portarlington Recreation Reserve

Elimination Final: Sunday, August 29 – Barwon Heads vs. Newcomb @ Portarlington Recreation Reserve